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Unlike the first part of the last century when the population of Britain proudly followed the progress of their navy and understood how much their well being depended on it, today the majority of people have little idea of the state of the RN or even the point of a having a navy. Many just see the armed forces as an expensive irrelevance and think the money could better spent elsewhere.

In fact although Billions are spent on defence, as a proportion of government spending, defence accounts for just 2.5% THE LOWEST FIGURE SINCE the 1930s (the era of appeasement). Even at a time when we are involved in 2 overseas conflicts. Money spent on defence is a drop in the ocean compared the vast amounts this government has poured into the NHS (with little visible effect). In fact as a proportion of our wealth spent on defence we rank amongst the lowest in Europe. We have a seat on the UN security council, one the the five 'world powers' yet increasingly we do not have the conventional forces to merit this.

The navy has many vital roles apart from the obvious war fighting and maintaining the UK’s nuclear deterrent. These include anti drug and anti piracy patrols, humanitarian aid, fishery protection, diplomatic representation of the UK overseas, search and rescue, support of the coastguard and customs, maritime surveillance, intelligence gathering and many more.

The oldest and most important purpose of the RN is the escort of merchant ships.

As an island nation who import most of what we eat and the majority of the manufactured goods we use, it does not take a genius to see how serious a disruption to that maritime traffic would be. We need food; fuel and goods to keep our economy going and even sustain life itself. Due to the ease of air travel people may be inclined to think that sea borne trade is not so important. In fact airfreight accounts for a tiny and expensive minority of freight.

The only certainty is that the unexpected will happen and we need a navy ready and equipped that is able to respond to events. Frequently it is said “why are we spending money on the navy when we need helicopters in Afghanistan or body armour for the troops in Iraq?” It takes around 10 years to design and build a warship and even longer to acquire the expertise to operate them. Who can predict the future? On average the UK has been involved in a new conflict at least every 5 years since World War 2 and we can be certain we will need our naval forces again. Also a ‘fleet in being’ acts as a powerful deterrent and can actually help us to avoid conflict. Armed forces are an insurance policy – you may not expect to make a claim today or tomorrow but that doesn't mean you stop paying the premium.

Some 'doomesday' scenarios

Here are a few possible ‘doomesday' scenarios. These are not the refined product of a staff college or an intellectual think-tank, rather ‘back of an envelope ideas’. They maybe crude, and hopefully will never happen, but they do demonstrate that one day we may wish the government hadn't been allowed to get away with the butchering of the RN.

Worst–case: Global conflicts
A major war in the Far East occurs as China attempts to invade Taiwan. The US becomes involved and China imposes a naval blockade of shipping. The RN, with so few ships and no proper air cover for its fleet cannot intervene or even be of much help in support of US naval forces. Trade with the Far East grinds to a halt and Britain experiences massive shortages of manufactured goods.

The old cold war re-ignites as a hot war. Russia, angered at increasing US arrogance, goes to war and sends naval forces, in particular submarines, to attack merchant shipping. US naval forces spread across the globe are at full stretch and the RN is not even strong enough to defend its own back yard of the Atlantic and North Sea. The RN, with so few escort ships cannot hope to escort the number of shipping convoys of men and material across the Atlantic that are needed.

Medium intensity conflicts:
Argentina, keen to avenge defeat in 1982 seizes the Falklands again, overpowering the light forces stationed there before they can be re-enforced from the UK. Using the runway (kindly lengthened by the British), their fast jets are able to easily dominate the seas around the islands. The Navy, with less than half the strength it had in 1982, is completely helpless to intervene and the Falklands are ceded to Argentina against the wishes of the islanders. Britain is humiliated.

Iran sends it naval forces into the gulf with the intention of disrupting the oil trade, laying mines, attacking oil tankers. Although we have some naval forces ready to for this we would (as usual) be heavily reliant on the US fleet to sort this out. In the mean time, oil prices would have rocketed badly damaging the world economy.

Piracy:
It may sound old fashioned but attacks by pirates on merchant shipping are on the increase in the Far East and around Africa. If this gets out of control it will impact global trade and require long-term international naval action, even now the RN would be hard pressed to provide even 2 or 3 ships for permanent anti piracy patrols.

Terrorist Actions:
As was seen in the relatively minor fuel crisis of 2000 a disruption to the flow of oil into and around the country caused havoc. A terrorist group manages to drive small craft packed with explosives into oil/gas tankers at a couple of major oil terminals such as Milford Haven or Fawley. The exploding ships destroy much local infrastructure and close the ports for weeks. The resulting fuel crisis drives up oil prices and causes economic chaos as the country comes to a standstill.

Terrorists manage to lay crude mines in the approaches main container ports such as Tilbury or Felixstowe. The RN, lacking enough mine hunters and trained manpower are forced to resort to improvisation and it takes weeks to re-open the ports resulting in major disruption.

Terrorists put a chemical weapons in containers on merchant vessels bound for the UK. Although difficult to counter at the best of times, the lack of RN patrol vessels and manpower make proper security checks impossible.

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